Contributing Authors
Joe Buckley is the treasurer for Scientists for Labour and a postgraduate researcher at UCL. He studies the mathematical modelling of drug delivery systems and is currently researching the virus responsible for COVID-19.
Benjamin Fernando is the Chair of Scientists for Labour and works on numerical modelling of wave propagation in fluids at the University of Oxford.
Aris Katzourakis is Professor of Evolution and Genomics at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, with viruses forming the major focus of his research. He has been co-opted onto the Executive Committee of Scientists for Labour during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Adam Thompson is the Vice-Chair Policy of Scientists for Labour and a research fellow in metrology at the University of Nottingham. Adam’s role in Scientists for Labour is to coordinate and oversee policy development.
Daniel A. Villar is a behavioural ecologist at the University of St. Andrews, and member of the Executive Committee of Scientists for Labour.
About
Scientists for Labour is a socialist society affiliated to the Labour Party. Our aims are to both promote good science in politics, and promote Labour values in science. More information about Scientists for Labour, including how to join, can be found at https://www.scientistsforlabour.org.uk/.
Throughout the COVID-19 crisis, Scientists for Labour will be preparing briefings and summaries of the latest research into coronavirus for elected Labour Party representatives and their staff. If you would like to receive these briefings, contacts chair@sfl.org.uk.
Questions about this report should be directed to J. Buckley, treasurer@sfl.org.uk.
General inquiries about Scientists for Labour should be directed to B. Fernando, chair@sfl.org.uk.
Executive Summary
COVID-19 (coronavirus) is one of the most serious crises ever faced by the UK, with predictions of a worst case scenario where 81% of the population catch the virus, leading to up to half a million deaths (Ferguson et al., 2020). Scientists for Labour pose a set of key questions that need to be addressed, and call on the government to take stronger action.
Scientists researching coronavirus must be able to continue their research. As such, laboratories must stay open, the support infrastructure must remain in place, and key production and distribution networks must continue operating, while protecting the safety of workers. Any government action to contain the virus must take these requirements into account and funds need to be freely available for research to continue. Investment in the necessary infrastructure to produce medications and vaccines at a large scale may also be required.
Clear communication is key, as the scientific community and the general public must be aware of what is about to happen. All models and data used by the Government need to be publicly available.
It is almost certain that the NHS will exceed its critical care capacity (Batchelor, 2020) and the Government needs to take all possible action to avoid this eventuality. Personal protective equipment (PPE) needs to be readily available for all NHS staff and social care workers. Any obstacles to maximising the number of patients receiving the treatment and support that they need on our NHS must be removed as rapidly and thoroughly as possible.
The UK must learn lessons from the international responses, and must move from a mitigation approach to one of suppression, applying heavy measures to quickly get the epidemic under control. The Government should follow the advice of the British Society of Immunologists (BSI, 2020); taking steps to ensure more short term social distancing occurs, we reiterate that modelling and data should be publicly available. The Government needs to be clear about its position, and cannot allow any more uncertainty.
Action to protect the mental health of people who have been forced to self-isolate needs to be taken. The Government should look into setting up an NHS 111 style mental health advice line.
With school closures, action needs to be taken to mitigate against students missing out on vital parts of their education. Due to the inequalities in internet access (ONS, 2019), online learning will not be effective without action to support the poorest families. Adequate childcare provision needs to be arranged, particularly for frontline NHS workers and scientific researchers working on the COVID-19 response.
The poorest and most vulnerable in society are likely to face the worst consequences of this crisis. Steps must be taken to protect these people, providing both financial and practical support. This action needs to be rooted in local communities, and the UK Government. The Labour Party and Local Government will need to interact with and provide support for community groups across the length and breadth of this country.
Statement of aims and scope of this report
The authors of this report intend to add to the discourse around COVID-19 and make a case for what actions should be taken by both the Government and the Opposition, as well as to highlight some key considerations that need to be addressed when taking any action.
Nothing in this report should be taken as either medical or public health advice. Scientists for Labour strongly believes that the advice of both the NHS and Public Health England (or the relevant devolved administration) should be followed at all times. Any criticism of the action of the Government, the Conservative Party, the NHS or Public Health England, should not be used to justify ignoring the advice of the NHS or Public Health England.
This disclaimer aside, in this report we will criticise
some of the actions of the government, as well as outline vital questions that
need to be raised by The Labour Party.
1. Introduction
Coronavirus (COVID-19) is well established in the UK, with almost 3000 cases confirmed as of the 18th March 2020 (BBC News, 2020b). It is too late to contain the virus, and as such we expect a difficult period of significant social impact. It is estimated that up to 80% of the UK population could become infected (Ferguson et al., 2020), with up to half a million deaths (Davis and McIntyre, 2020); approximately 30 times the annual number of deaths associated with influenza (flu) in the UK (Public Health England, 2019).
This crisis is of almost unprecedented scale. The projected number of deaths is almost ten times higher than the UK’s civilian casualties of World War II, making it the third worst crisis by number of deaths in the UKs history, behind only the Black Death and the Irish Potato Famine.
Effective governance and public health action can mitigate or suppress the effects of the virus, and it is urgent that governments worldwide act swiftly in accordance with the best possible scientific evidence. As coronavirus is an issue that straddles both science and politics, we believe that it is crucial that Scientists for Labour make a strong case for a practical response to the crisis rooted in socialist Labour values. As such we call on the Labour Party to consider the following points, and to use its position in Opposition to promote these considerations.
2. Science and Research 2.1 Continuity of Research
We welcome some of the announcements in the budget, particularly the commitment to £12bn of spending to combat COVID-19. However, it is currently unclear how the money will be distributed, and it should be noted that the standard grant application process is notoriously complex and slow (Shaw, 2013); thus under the current infrastructure we will struggle to efficiently allocate money in the timescales required. In order to deal with this crisis, a streamlined grant application process is required to fast track applications for coronavirus research.
One of the most important challenges is to enable coronavirus researchers to continue conducting research. Firstly, universities are likely to be closed to avoid becoming centres of transmission. It is vital that, while reasonable steps are taken to prevent the spread of the virus, laboratories and centres researching the virus are kept open. This will require procurement, finance, cleaning, and security staff to continue working, although possibly in a reduced or remote role where appropriate. It will also be necessary to ensure that production of vital consumables, particularly active reagents, continues, and that priority is given to coronavirus researchers if shortages occur. This will also need delivery and postage networks to continue functioning. It is essential that decisions on these matters are communicated to the scientific community as quickly as possible. Research groups who expect work to stop will not purchase key resources, particularly those which are perishable, which could lead to a delay in vital research if delays occur in communication.
With social isolation of both individuals and countries implemented in response to coronavirus, collaboration may become significantly more difficult. While we have technologies that enable remote collaboration, these technologies may not be capable of meeting all of the demands of the research community, and indeed anecdotal reports abound of such platforms struggling under the strain this week.
2.2 Science and the Public
Another important issue is to push for all research to be in the public domain, following the inspiring example of Jonas Salk, who chose not to patent his Polio vaccine (Tan & Ponstein, 2019). BioCentury Journal has been leading by example on this front, by creating an open access section for coronavirus research (BioCentury, 2020). We need more of this behaviour, requiring companies to put aside short-term profit for the public good.
A major issue is the lack of science literacy of the general public. This problem directly contributes to the spread of the virus through poor hygiene practises. There also may be problems with both journalists and politicians lacking experience relating to science and medicine, which can contribute to the spread of disinformation. Scientists for Labour strongly recommends all MPs engage with experts, and that Labour MPs engage with Scientists for Labour on all scientific issues. Solving scientific literacy is not a short term task, however, investment and innovation into science education is required to mitigate future crises.
3. Medicine and Healthcare
South Korea appears to have successfully tackled COVID-19, and a key part of this has been its extensive testing of its citizens, with over 210,000 people tested by March 11th(Roglin, 2020). The UK has carried out a significantly lower number of tests to date (Boseley, 2020b), with information on how to get tested being unclear. While there are plans to remedy this, action should have been taken much earlier.
It is vitally important that the UK has enough critical care beds. It is worth highlighting that this is not simply a bed in critical care and the associated equipment, but sufficiently trained staff. The limiting factor here is staff, as training staff takes time. While care beds are expensive, it is necessary we have the capacity to care for those most in need.
This is emblematic of a greater issue; years of neglect and underfunding of the NHS which cannot be fixed overnight to solve a crisis. To train enough nurses and doctors to treat this crisis will take a long time, however given the expected length of this crisis, action must be taken immediately. The idea that calling back retired NHS staff to help in the crisis (Campbell, 2020) neglects the fact that these people are often in the most high-risk group.
There has been some suggestion that the UK is running low on PPE for NHS staff (Lintern, 2020). This needs to be remedied immediately, whether through standard procurement mechanisms or radical measures such as requisition. Furthermore, working in the necessary PPE is extremely uncomfortable, and very difficult to do for extended periods of time. This means NHS workers will need regular breaks in order to perform their job properly.
4. International Scientific and Medical Responses
It is still too early to comment on the efficacy of the international response. Countries have had varied responses, including doing nothing, mitigating the virus while accepting large numbers of deaths will occur and the public health system may be overwhelmed, or attempting to suppress the virus by applying heavy measures to get the epidemic under control. The latter approach is proving successful in some countries, and has already allowed the easing of some of the early restrictions. The UK must adopt a strategy of suppression as the growing experience of other countries is showing. However, the international consensus is that decisive action needs to be taken, and the UK was initially an outlier in this regard (Cooper and Furlong, 2020).
4.1 China
China, where the virus began, has been very effective at limiting the spread of the virus within the country, although it has been suggested they were too late to initially act (Qin, 2020). China currently has plateaued at around 81,000 cases (Yao & M, 2020), out of a population of 1.4bn. This is a tiny proportion of the population, and has been achieved through decisive action, including strict social distancing requirements, extensive public monitoring of citizens, and quarantines of entire cities (Kao, 2020). However, some of the steps China has taken have been criticised on the basis of civil liberties. For example, China has been criticised (Swart, 2020) for cracking down on freedom of speech and imposing arbitrary detention on its citizens. It is vitally important that we do not allow unnecessary infringements of human rights in the UK, and any decision to restrict individual freedoms in our country needs to be completely justified, and any changes to legislation regarding individual freedoms must be time restricted for the duration of the COVID-19 crisis.
As part of China’s response, many laboratories had to shut down. For a biological lab, shutting down can involve killing all animals, cell cultures, viruses and bacteria. To recover from this process can take weeks or months, and could critically delay research into coronavirus. The UK must take steps to avoid this if possible.
4.2 South Korea
Another key international example is South Korea, which has a decreasing rate of transmission. This has been achieved with less drastic steps than China, with a focus on transparency and providing clear up to date information to its citizens. Its hallmark has been widespread testing for the virus (Roglin, 2020). Importantly, South Korea has managed to avoid shutting down research centres and laboratories.
4.3 Italy
Italy was initially slow to react to the virus, and only took decisive action in response to the virus after it was too late. One issue in italy is that many PhD students are not legally considered workers, and therefore are not allowed to travel to their labs (Zubașcu, 2020). This is a key oversight given that PhD students are a vital part of the research process. PhD students in the UK also do not have worker status, something that is essential to consider if it becomes necessary to impose travel restrictions
4.4 Spain
One of the more commendable responses is that of the Spanish Government, which has taken steps to allow requisitioning of private hospitals and industry (Parra and Wilson, 2020). This may provide essential in the fight against the virus, allowing the Government to use private hospitals for the public good, while ensuring the continuous supply of essential items.
5.5 USA
We must also consider some of the less helpful, reactionary responses to the virus. For example, Donald Trump recently announced a travel ban from all Schengen countries. This is not the first travel ban imposed under the guise of public safety by Trump, and there is no evidence to suggest that travel bans like this are useful (Narea, 2020).
5. UK Response 5.1 Flawed Governmental Response
Scientists for Labour believes that the government has reacted poorly to the coronavirus outbreak. COBRA should have convened a month before it was, and Public Health England and the corresponding devolved administrations should have played a much more visible role. We agree with the criticism of Prof. John Ashton, former regional director of public health, describing both the slow and the secretive reaction of the Government (Boseley, 2020). There is also emerging evidence that the current approach of the UK Government is insufficient and drastic steps, in the form of on and off containment measures, are required in order to prevent the NHS exceeding capacity (Ferguson et al., 2020). This evidence, as well as subsequent studies, must be considered and used to guide Government action.
It is vitally important that the government is clear and transparent on the models and the data it is using, particularly with the controversial suggestion of a reliance on herd immunity (Lintern, 2020). Peer review and reproducibility are vital components of the scientific method, and if the government does not make its methodology and data both clear and public it cannot claim to have acted in accordance with science. This is exemplified by the flawed original modelling of COVID-19 in the UK, which used viral pneumonia as a baseline and massively underestimated the impact of coronavirus (Cookson, 2020). If this information was public and open to scrutiny, then issues could have been noticed much sooner.
The UK Government’s initial approach has received widespread criticism, as it goes against WHO advice. This has led to numerous scientists have signed an open letter describing this approach as risking “many more lives than necessary” (Ghosh, 2020), and called upon the government to take stronger measures of social distancing across the UK.
On this issue, the British Society of Immunologists released an open letter with two key asks from the government: 1) that more is done to ensure social distancing in the short term, particularly amongst the more vulnerable members of society and 2) that the government release its model and data (BSI, 2020). Scientists for Labour completely supports this position.
5.2 Other Considerations
An important consideration is the negative effects of the drastic action that may become necessary. Closing businesses will have an immediate effect on the economy, the long term response to which may cause many deaths, however the priority must be to act not to minimise the deaths caused by COVID-19. A UCL study (Watkins, et al., 2018) found between 2010 and 2014, up to 120,000 deaths in four years were caused by the (unnecessary) austerity imposed as a reaction to the 2008 financial crisis. Public closures will have a knock on effect to the NHS and to scientific research, making it harder for frontline workers and researchers to do their jobs, as described above.
It is important that governmental communication is clear. It was initially hard to tell if herd immunity was the government’s position, having been suggested by the chief medical officer, but denied by the health secretary (Johnston, 2020). The government needs to be clear on its strategy, and open with the data, so the scientific community can analyse its approach.
The government needs to consider the no deal Brexit preparations, and how relevant some of the measures introduced to deal with the potential fallout of a no deal Brexit are for coronavirus. While there isn’t a perfect overlap, some of the steps taken in case of problems with trade or in the case of an economic crash will likely be relevant.
6. Other Scientific and Medical Related Issues 6.1 Mental Health, Childcare and Education
Self-isolation necessarily includes social isolation for many people. This can have a dramatic impact on mental health, and people vulnerable to mental health conditions may be forced to choose between their mental health and following public health guidelines. Our inadequate mental health system cannot deal with this, and like many of the problems with the NHS cannot be fixed overnight. Taking certain steps, such as making funds available for increased mental health services, and looking into an “NHS 111” style system for mental health advice may help to mitigate this.
The Government should prepare sufficient childcare provision for this crisis. Since 2010, we have seen an underfunding of childcare, (Strauss, 2019). While this is a large failing of the government under normal circumstances, it will be a major issue during this current pandemic. As an example, if one parent of a two-parent family becomes ill with coronavirus, the other parent will have to be responsible for childcare. If this other parent is an NHS frontline worker, or a coronavirus researcher, we will lose vital members of the fight against the outbreak. This is also of concern during school closures.
On the topic of school closures, it is possible that children will miss out on significant parts of their education. This is an area where clear guidance should be given, particularly regarding the possibility of “remote” lessons. One drawback with this is that decades of rising inequality have left 700,000 school children without an internet connected device of their own, with 60,000 without internet access at home at all (Office for National Statistics, 2019).
6.2 Sick Pay, Rent Deferrals and Foodbanks
All employees should be entitled to full sick pay, that is the same amount they would have been paid if they were to work. This is vital for people in low-paid industries, who may not have the option to work remotely. Nobody should be forced to choose between following medical and public health advice and paying rent, to this end the Government needs to consider steps such as a universal basic income. Scientists for Labour also supports the calls of the Labour leadership asking for rent deferrals and mortgages holidays during this crisis (Rodgers, 2020). It is vital that nobody lose their home as a result of COVID-19 as this will act to exacerbate the cost to public health.
Foodbanks may see an increase in demand due to coronavirus related redundancies, and are often staffed by retirees, who, as one of the groups most vulnerable to the virus, won’t be able to continue their duties. The government should also take strong action to avoid any price gouging that may occur as a result of the current crisis, introducing price controls if necessary.
7.3 Human Rights and Racism
It is also important that we examine the law on forced quarantining. In England, medicalprofessionals, public health professionals or the police can act unilaterally to detain people suspected of having the virus (Department for Health and Social Care, 2020). It is vital that checks are placed on these powers. Forced quarantining may disproportionately affect already marginalised communities, as does other more common forms of detention. For example, there is a significantly higher rate of detention under the Mental Health Act for black people (Matthews-King, 2018).
Scotland has a fairer system for quarantining, which requires a court order, while health boards can place certain restrictions on individuals (Department for Health and Social Care, 2020). This allows at least some oversight of the process, which makes it harder for biases of an individual to come into play. This process should be adopted in the rest of the UK.
Emblematic of this is the rise in hate crimes against people of Chinese origin has been seen across the country (BBC News, 2020). The government and media need to act to ensure that this behaviour is stopped, and it would be naïve to assume that these racist mentalities are not reflected amongst health officials or the police. Therefore, a process that ensures the rights of anyone being detained needs to be immediately implemented.
With the far right the strongest it has been in
almost 80 years, it is critically important that we do not cede ground on vital
issues such as immigration and human rights. As mentioned above, we need to be
careful about setting a precedent that can be used for racist immigration
policies, and we must ensure that we do not let a racist narrative emerge
around coronavirus. The far right may also want to use this crisis to promote
antisemitism, as there is historical precedent for rising antisemitism during
epidemics (Abramson, 2020). it is vital that both the media, government, and
society at large do not entertain any antisemitic opinion, and that airtime is
not given to individuals who want to push antisemitic conspiracy theories.
Discussion
Given the rapidly developing nature of the situation, it is essential that the Labour Party have a mechanism for scientists to feed into policy. As the only Labour Party affiliate dedicated to science, we believe that Scientists for Labour must play a key role in coordinating this.
It is vital that at no point the Labour Party spreads misinformation, and it cannot take a reactive approach. It needs to be seen as leading, proposing scientifically sound ideas, and raising key issues. Its status as the Official Opposition allows it to shine light on issues in a way the scientific community cannot, and as such it should act as a proxy for the scientific community.
That being said, it is also essential that any approach is rooted in egalitarian socialist principles, and that steps are taken to protect the most vulnerable in society. We cannot compromise on our beliefs out of a sense of panic, and the Labour Party must continue to promote its core values. The Labour Party must help scientists engage with the public, help experts to be connected and sensitive rather than distant and disengaged.
It is key that any MPs or other elected officials without a sufficient level of expertise seek advice. We are happy to talk to any elected Labour official or their staff about the situation, and to connect them with relevant experts.
Conclusion
We have outlined some of the major issues that face both the scientific community and society at large with respect to the COVID-19 outbreak and have raised key questions that both the Labour Party and the Government need to consider. Fundamentally, we believe the following points require public focus:
- ensuring continuity of COVID-19 related scientific research during any of the suppression measures taken;
- ensuring clear communication of the scientific basis of any governmental action;
- preventing the NHS from exceeding its critical care capacity;
- learning lessons from the steps taken internationally;
- protecting the mental health of people forced to self-isolate;
- continuing the education of children during school closures;
- ensuring the most vulnerable in society do not bear the brunt of this crisis; and ● protecting human rights and individual freedoms.
We hope that both the current and future leadership of the Labour Party will work with Scientists for Labour on the response to the crisis, and that the party can show unity on this issue of national importance. We further hope that the party can use its position to influence the government on some of these issues, and work across the aisle where appropriate to put public interest first.
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